Volumetric Forecasting

Also known as: BASES, Sales Forecasting, Volume Estimate, Demand Forecasting

Quantitative estimate of the projected sales volume of a new product before launch, based on market research.

Volumetric Forecasting is a market research methodology that estimates the potential sales volume of a new product before launch, combining research data (awareness, trial, repeat) with market data (category size, distribution, price).

The most well-known model is Nielsen's BASES, which uses a standard purchase intent-adjusted methodology to estimate penetration, trial rate, and repurchase behavior. Other approaches include innovation diffusion models and Monte Carlo simulations.

It is a critical risk reduction tool for innovation investment decisions: it allows estimating whether the projected volume justifies the investment in production, distribution, and marketing before committing capital.